War - A Rational 21st Century Foreign Policy Strategy?

Interlocking Challenges. The 21st century is				had we realized and acted on our opportunity for
presenting the world with a surprisingly dangerous				collective action that the end of the Cold War
and complex set of interlocking challenges:o global				presented.
warming ;o environmental degradation;o declining				Opportunity Missed. The Cold War had bottled up
energy resources declining in relation to demand ;o				and distorted a number of trends. The end of
the rising insistence of the world's disadvantaged				colonialism, which should have left the new states
for respect and a realignment of the distribution				free to organize themselves, was instead replaced
of both political power and economic resources.				by pressures to join sides in the new global
Any one of these changes would threaten our				conflict between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. The
world order; together they pose a challenge of				move toward equality of peoples regardless of
unprecedented danger because they				ethnic background or geographic location was
simultaneously attack our climate, the cleanliness				subverted by the shifting of focus to this new
of the very air we breathe, our economy, and				conflict as well. Efforts to achieve North-South
the international political system that we use to				equality within capitalism took second place to the
manage our lives on our shrinking planet. How can				perceived need to win the world for capitalism.
we find the resources to solve all these problems				Democratization was seen either as a luxury that
at once? How can we focus our attention in so				could not be afforded or an outright threat by
many directions at once?				superpowers more concerned with lining up allies
Moreover, their interlocked nature presents a				among the ruling elites.
challenge of awesome complexity. Competition for				The Cold War's end removed these artificial
energy resources clashes with demands of poor				constraints on the process of liberation. It
peoples for a restructuring of the global political				removed the need for all to march in lockstep in
system. Finding economic resources to tackle				a global campaign--there was no more global
global poverty, create a non-carbon-based energy				campaign. Local political disturbances in new states
infrastructure, and clean up pollution simultaneously				were no longer a threat to the world system
seems impossible but failure to address any one				because there was no longer an outside power
threatens to exacerbate the political divide				looking for opportunities to take advantage of
between haves and have-nots.				these disturbances. So the end of the Cold War
The interlocking nature of these challenges is				allowed a return to the process of liberating and
dangerous not only because "you can't solve just				enfranchising people worldwide.
one problem" but because it raises significantly the				The Cold War's end--and, in particular, the nature
likelihood of new, unanticipated phenomena				of the Cold War's end--gave the world an historic
emerging rapidly and taking us by surprise. The				opportunity. The war ended calmly and peacefully;
explosion of a global jihad and its current				no one was defeated, and the two sides ended
metamorphosis into endless self-initiated,				up shaking hands, albeit gingerly, and agreeing that
uncoordinated , copy-cat acts of				working together would make the world a better
anti-establishment violence sees to be one				place. Previous wars--World War II, World War I,
example. The sudden loss of will by a tired Soviet				the Napoleonic wars, the Thirty Years' War--had
leadership of a visibly failing and--by its				ended with stunned populations impoverished and
people--increasingly rejected system of				desperate, economies and infrastructures
government is another. More such surprises can				shattered. The Cold War, by comparison, ended
be expected.				as an opportunity.
Foreign Policy Principles. To cope with this				For a brief moment in time, it would not be too
multifaceted challenge will require a far more				far from the truth to say that, on a global scale,
thoughtful public debate than has yet occurred.				money and goodwill were plentiful, and security
Two centuries ago, as the colonies revolted				was no longer an issue. The major masses of
against Great Britain, such a fundamental and				organized populations--the U.S., West Europe,
thoughtful debate occurred over the question of				Russia, China--were beginning a decade of
how best to design a new form of national				economic growth with no significant security
government. We are still trying to figure out the				threat. No fundamental ideological debate was
details, of course, but the US grew successfully				hindering cooperation. Fukuyama had a point - if
on the basis of a few revolutionary principles of				history did not end, at least it hesitated. We had a
national governance that were defined and agreed				chance--and it was a clearly visible chance at the
upon at that time: power to the people unless				time, not just in hindsight--to do things better.
expressly reserved for the government, states				It was not lack of economic ability or lack of
would have certain rights the central government				technical ability or security concerns that stood in
could not take away, the central government				the way. Courage, imagination, and a willingness to
would have three branches to balance each other				insist on principle could at the beginning of the
and prevent the reemergence of dictatorship.				1990's have enabled the world to start moving
The challenge of the 21st century may require				down a fundamentally new path: a path of slow,
the enunciation of a similar set of principles to				careful, tedious, little steps designed incrementally
govern how we execute foreign policy. A few				to bring justice and a sense of being respected to
suggestions follow:o Principle #1. Violence is a poor				all the world's various groups whose legitimate
strategy for solving complex problems.o Principle				concerns had been marginalized for so long in the
#2. It's not "truth" but perceptions that matter.o				name of winning the Cold War, or winning WWII,
Principle #3. Nothing is ever black and white.o				or winning WWI. This, of course, would have
Principle #4. Taboos exist to protect the guilty.				amounted to a realization of Fukuyama's vision: a
Agreement on a set of principles to underlie our				world of slow, perhaps dull, steps toward justice
foreign policy would help us think about the				for all without the distortions of the past
consequences of proposed courses of action. We				ideological campaigns against communism, fascism,
may for short-term gain choose to violate				expansionism, capitalism. We should read
Principle #1 and use violence to alleviate some				Fukuyama as offering not a prediction (for who
adverse condition of a complex problem we face,				after all can ever predict history?) but as an
but recognizing the principle we are violating will at				opportunity. He told us, in effect, that we had at
least help us to go in with our eyes open, realizing				the end of the Cold War a very unusual chance
full well that the long-term consequences will				to shift the course of history onto a new path.
inevitably be a mess that we will have to clean up				During the Cold War and, indeed, throughout
rather than deluding ourselves into thinking that				known human history, the predominant model has
the violence we perpetrate will solve the problem.				been to build a society and then to expand its
"Solving" the bad sound of an untuned violin with a				power by forcing others to join. The opportunity
hammer leaves you with a smashed violin.				at the end of the Cold War was to begin
We may choose endlessly to debate the "truth"				developing societies on the principle of making
of an issue, and, indeed, so we should, because				those societies so attractive that others would
such debate is the foundational requirement for				want to join. Russia took a laudable step in this
acquiring knowledge and understanding, but				direction in letting the ethnic republics go free and
Principle #2 will remind us that far more important				then trying to entice them back. Unfortunately,
if you want to reach agreement is simply thinking				ruling elites could not break old habits, and
about why the other guy sees the world				movement down this road came to a screeching
differently.				halt in a tiny place almost no one, except perhaps
Whenever you hear the claim that X is good and				readers of the 19th century Russian writer
Y is evil, Principle #3 should be a red flag: those				Lermontov, had ever heard of: Chechnya.
who depict the world in black and white are either				A fundamental change had occurred in the course
colorblind or trying to put one over on you. "Evil"				of world history by 1990: suddenly, now, for the
is an appellation not designed to inform but to				first time, everyone knew everything. Faxes,
prevent discussion. Closely allied to this practice is				CNN, and then the Internet meant there were
that of making some subject taboo.				effectively no more secrets. We still have no real
Taboo subjects are precisely the things you				idea of the impact of modern communications on
should discuss. Taboos are covers to protect the				world developments, but the well-known impact
guilty from scrutiny. When society accepts a				of faxes on the Tiananmen Crisis and the
subject as "taboo," as something one simply does				abortive coup attempt by the Soviet old guard
not discuss, society is accepting a loss of				provides clues. It must surely have become
freedom. If you live in a democracy and there is				obvious to virtually every repressed individual
a significant issue of policy that cannot be				across the globe by the end of the 20th century
discussed, be suspicious: the elite is trying to				that whatever excuses had ever been used in
prevent you from seeing the truth. A population				the past to justify ignoring, oppressing,
that becomes skilled at avoiding issues is a				disenfranchising, and robbing them no longer held
population preparing itself for dictatorship.				any validity whatsoever.
Violence Losing Value. Perhaps the most				The Cold War had been used to justify ignoring a
important of the above principles is the first:				vast array of injustices against "marginal" groups,
violence is a poor strategy for solving complex				from truly marginal minorities to the vast majority
problems. This principle increasingly applies in our				of the population in some countries. As chance
increasingly interconnected world regardless of the				would have it, however, the test case for the
power of the side that chooses violence: its				new era in world affairs turned out to be
power not translated into actual ability to resolve				Chechnya, where a tiny population that had been
problems.				resisting Russian expansionism for two centuries
A powerful country may be stymied because its				took the new world political atmosphere at face
problems are not amenable to solution by the				value and announced that, "Well, yes, thank you
means available to it. Alternatively, it may be				very much for the offer, we will be most pleased
weakened by internal disagreement over goals or				to become independent. After all, we have been
policies to achieve them. Or, it may have the				saying that for two centuries. So nice of you to
ability but not be able to perceive it through				pay attention." The Russian response did not go
rose-colored glasses or a penchant for				over well: "Ah, well, we...ah...actually didn't have you
conservative thinking. Whatever the cause of a				specifically in mind; you're not a "republic," you
great power's problems, the main consequence in				see, you're part of "us" and...well...there's the oil...and
such a scenario is simply to turn it into a larger				those other internal minorities...Dagestan, and what
target.				all..." In the event, two Russian-Chechen wars,
In a world of popular participation in foreign policy,				near genocide of the Chechen people, heroic
rapid communication, asynchronous warfare, and				attempts at exposure by heroic Russian reporter
the rise of non-state actors, traditional power				Politkovskaya (since murdered) and other
wielded via traditional blunt military means may,				reporters [see Politkovskaya, A Dirty War; Nivat,
over the long term, actually harm the user more				Chienne de guerre; Smith, Allah's Mountains],
than the opponent. Such increasingly appears to				freedom fighters portrayed as terrorists, and, a
be becoming the new reality of global international				generation later, with Chechnya shattered and
relations...a reality missed by those who wield such				devastated, and with all sides radicalized, the sad
power.				story continues. The world protested a bit but
Cowboys and Complexity. The explanation for this				essentially made it clear that it had other priorities.
takes us into the confusing world of complexity, a				Realpolitik still outbid morality.
place where counterintuitive group behavior				The next big test for the post-Cold War ruling
results from multiple, interacting forces affecting				elites came in an equally remote location, the
individuals. These forces cannot be simply added				jungles of southern Mexico, where the plight of
or subtracted; rather, the effect of each force				marginalized Mayan peasant farmers who were
varies as a function of the other forces.				not connected to the world economy via the
Removing one force unpredictably alters the				appetite of Americans for their melons, was
impact of the remaining forces.o Assassinating the				ignored by the American and Mexican elites as
leader of a rebellion may allow the emergence of				they negotiated the new NAFTA arrangement.
several new leaders who take the rebellion in new				The people of Chiapas stood up and demanded to
and possibly more extreme directions, as they				be heard, as they had done repeatedly over the
compete with each other for mastery of the				previous 150 years, but this time the
now factionalized movement.o Handing the heady				repercussions led to the 1994 Mexican peso crisis
concept of "democracy" to a society not ready				and a $20 Billion loan guarantee by Washington: a
for it make lead to an explosion of irresponsible				very big bill for ignoring the price of melons.
articles in public media (something Benjamin				One could continue by citing Palestine, Kashmir,
Franklin complained about after the American				Aceh, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Colombia, but one
Revolution).o Invasion may radicalize a quiescent,				sees the pattern...A vast array of highly diverse
conservative population, transforming it into an				events, all with long histories but also with some
effective revolutionary movement.				essential similarities:o Marginal people demanding to
Force remains force, but the pinpoint application of				be heard...and respected;o Despite the post-Cold
force that is seen and reacted to by a wider				War opportunity, the initial reaction across the
audience doesn't work as it used to. The death of				board was to clamp down, control, use force;o
a rebel now becomes a force multiplier for the				But, in the new interconnected world, the local
rebels. It not only brings in new recruits but				events had global consequences.
provokes sympathizers to undertake their own				The marginal people were no longer alone, and
independent, uncoordinated, unauthorized initiatives,				they knew it. And, somehow, the force used
i.e., new behavior emerges from the individual level				against them no longer seemed as effective.
outside of the control of any established				The 1990's were not a decade of evil because
organization. A wave of apparently coordinated				injustice was found to exist in the world; that
violence results from numerous, independent				injustice had always existed. The 1990's were a
actions.				decade of evil because the world's elites had the
Lethal force may prove useless to resist this				opportunity to address that injustice and they
wave because no one knows how to apply it				chose instead to look the other way.
against such unpredictable, independent actors. In				Why does this matter? Because we are now
such cases, standard military force-on-force				paying the price.
calculations will not provide much insight into the				History may not be predictable, but it is
likely winner. Instead of carrying the day, cowboy				predictable that the pattern of long-term injustice
foreign policy may only carry the minute, then				against marginalized minorities leading to
backfire badly.				unforeseen major problems for the world has not
It's not that we can no longer count weapons and				ended. The list of candidates for the next disaster
calculate likely winners but that the modern world				is endless. Indeed, the poor record since the Cold
is being transformed in a way analogous to the				War of listening to mistreated peoples and
transformation of our understanding of physics.				responding to their pleas for justice has, with a
Neutonian physics has been replaced by quantum				few exceptions (East Timor, perhaps Kosovo and
physics, in which the very act of measurement				Ireland), only gotten longer.
affects what is being measured.				Wanted: Public Debate. We need to start a
Similarly, in the 21st century of global public				serious, honest debate about the nature of our
awareness, the process of taking a foreign policy				foreign policy. My blog, is designed to contribute to
action transforms the situation. It does not				help stir such a debate. Truth in advertising: the
matter how accurately the balance of forces was				principles advocated in this article as a route to a
calculated; your action just changed the balance.				just foreign policy or any other principles will not
Examples are legion, but one of the clearest is				solve our problems. That is not the role of
putting foreign boots on the ground. When soldiers				principles. Rather, principles provide guidelines and
from a global power intrude into the territory of a				targets. Politicians have struggled every day of
weak society that has education and modern				the last two centuries over exactly how to
communications technology, the power calculus is				implement the principle of separation of powers,
transformed. People become "stimulated:" they				but national acceptance of that principle as the
network, adapt, take on new roles. Twentieth				target has, so far, done much to keep us free of
century realpolitik may prove to have curious and				dictatorship.
fatal consequences in the 21st century.				A debate over the principles underlying our foreign
The Cold War's end turned out not to be the end				policy will raise critical issues that we can no longer
of history but the beginning of a fundamentally				afford to sweep under the rug in our increasingly
new and complicated phase, or perhaps more				interconnected world, of which the basic one may
realistically, a return to the normal historical				be: Should our national purpose be to protect our
processes that had been gaining speed since at				political elites, our country, our Western culture, or
least the French Revolution. Fukuyama's				all humanity? In fact, given the pace of global
forecasted "end of history" might have been				integration, do we even have a choice?
more accurate had we all been more thoughtful,

Democracy

War - A Rational 21st Century Foreign Policy Strategy?