| Senator Hillary Clinton is struggling to keep her | | | | consumers about wine-coolers when they have |
| democratic nomination alive today though she | | | | no idea what it is. |
| was the overwhelming favorite just three months | | | | That is the stuff of public mood and public life. |
| back - in December 2007. | | | | There is a season for things, and quite often we |
| The reason for this is simple: Senator Clinton's | | | | don't control those flows. Senator Obama himself |
| almost-perfect certitude in December 2007 that | | | | acknowledges and understands this ("fierece |
| she would prevail. That certitude was reasonable | | | | urgency of now" quoting Dr. King) -- he may not |
| by most objective measures. Senator Clinton did | | | | match the public sentiment in the next season, he |
| not come to that conclusion lightly. She came to | | | | does now. |
| that conclusion after evaluating her competition -- | | | | In spite of Senator Barack Obama's surprising |
| Senator Barack Obama (lack of national exposure | | | | strength, Senator Clinton could have still, probably, |
| and party network) and former Vice-Presidential | | | | won the Democratic Party nomination but her |
| Candidate John Edwards (has been there already | | | | well-placed confidence and certitude led to two |
| and not succeeded, not a fresh face, a bit too | | | | tactical misjudgments that are now costing her so |
| populist) -- and after assessing her own strengths | | | | dearly. |
| (experience, knowledge, party network.) | | | | The two misjudgments are: (i) not competing in |
| Objectively, any external consultant would have | | | | party caucuses vigorously (among the pledged |
| agreed with Senator Clinton's assessment of the | | | | delegates from the primaries, Senator Clinton |
| political landscape as it appeared in December | | | | trails only by about 20 pledged delegates but |
| 2007. | | | | when you factor the caucus results, Senator |
| As anticipated, John Edwards put up a spirited | | | | Clinton trails by over 150 pledged delegates); and |
| fight, and then suspended his campaign. But | | | | (ii) not doing enough due diligence about the |
| Senator Barack Obama's surprising and resilient | | | | Democratic Party rules, and absorbing and |
| strength is just that -- most surprising. | | | | internalizing those rules for proper strategy |
| However, in public life, every now and then a | | | | execution [e.g., believing that victory in big states |
| candidate who is in almost-complete sync with the | | | | should provide the numbers (not so because of |
| public mood emerges, and he/she captures the | | | | proportional representation rules), not absorbing |
| imagination (e.g, Reagan in 1980 after failing to | | | | the Texas dual system.] |
| connect in 1968, and almost succeeding in 1976.) | | | | That's the way life is sometimes. Timing (and |
| Usually, there are many institutional speed bumps | | | | some may call it luck or providence) is such a |
| to such a sweep (e.g., Gary Hart in 1984.) | | | | determinant in life. Just as Bill Clinton was wise (or |
| That's what we find with Senator Obama's | | | | lucky) in taking a pass at the 1988 Presidential |
| success this time -- he has captured the broad | | | | elections and equally wise (or lucky) in joining the |
| sweep of imagination of at least the Democratic | | | | fray in 1992, Senator Hillary Clinton's time may |
| Party voters, and he is running into many speed | | | | have been 2004 or it may be 2012 or 2016. |
| bumps but none of them has (yet) derailed him. | | | | It appears from all conventional metrics that the |
| Senator Hillary Clinton, nor any one including | | | | mood of the electorate favors the Democratic |
| Senator Obama, could have anticipated this. Nor | | | | nominee in fall but who really knows? No poll can |
| could any poll have captured this -- it is like asking | | | | measure this. |