The Middle East In 2008 And Beyond

As George Bush, The American President, headsThe government headed by Ahmadi Najad was
toward the Middle East in Jan 2008, the regionable to cultivate many of the missteps carried by
seems to gravitate toward greater instability andthe United States and among them the Iraqi
weakening American hegemony. Fromdebacle. Its influence over Shi'ism in Iraq needs to
Afghanistan to Lebanon and Palestine, more U.S.elaborations. Iran has made closer ties with Syria
involvements yet little fruits have beenand other non-governmental organizations in the
accomplished. Iraq is still bleeding, Democracyregion such as Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in
shelved to be replaced by a realist foreign policy,Palestine. They steadfastly negotiated the nuclear
and peace is more elusive as ever.issues with the West and it is the United States
Only in his last year in office, Bush has decided tothat finally altered its report and perception about
make the peace process his last attempt tonuclear Iran at least for the time being.
rectify his previous failed policies. Would heMany Arab governments close to the United
succeed while other attempts by previousStates made open and friendly and warm
presidents failed? He convened a conference inreproach toward Iran lately. Now the United
Annapolis for regional representatives to startStates through the engagement of the dormant
jump the ailing peace process. The Bushpresident decided to put a stop to these
Administration is eager to take such efforts torapprochements. Can the US succeed this time
engage in volatile and risky business while little haseven though its hegemony in the region is waning.
changed in the position of the actors in the regionWhat the United States is betting that Syria will
or the declared interests of the United States.give up its close relations with Iran by offering
We might enter into endless debate about the USseveral incentives not yet ripe or declared? Syria
administration motives to engage in a region longopenly states that it is willing to make peace with
neglected except militarily. From Afghanistan toIsrael if the the latter return the occupied Golan
Morocco (Al-Maghrib)and all the ot spot inHeight annexed since the 1967 War. The current
between through Pakistan, Iran Iraq, Syria,regime in Syria is faced with mounting pressure
Lebanon and Palestine, the United States foreignover the sheltering of Hamas Leadership in
policy is at its all time low crippled by adventurousDamascus, its support for Hamas in Palestine and
policy carried by the Pentagon and formulated byHizballah in Lebanon. Hamas has controlled Gaza
neo-conservatives.strip and unless a complete annaliation, the
In Afghanistan, America and its allies after severalorganization will continue to grow in power and
years were unable to create a powerful centralchallenge Fatah in controlling the West Bank.
government beyond the borders of Kabul theHizballah on the other hand along with the
capital. The power of Warlords are omnipresentremaining opposition forces in Lebanon and mainly
throughout the countryside and Taliban and itsthat of Michel Aoun Patriotic Party would not
shadow Al_qa'eda are re-emerging slowly andrelinquish its armed resistance nor give up arms
remain a threat to Karazai's western orientedunless a unity government is forged in Lebanon.
government.The United States and its allies are reluctant to
Iraq is no better place and the current decline ingive up which would tip the balance of power in
US casualties and Iraqi citizens are no indicationsfavor of the anti-American forces in Lebanon and
of long term stability or success. George Bush'sthe region.
"mission accomplished" is taking longer thatThe year 2008 will not witness any major US
anticipated and US soldiers deaths are nearingaccomplishments in region. A new presidential
4,000. The country remain the Wild Wide West atelection is set for the end of the year, Lebanon
a larger scale. Bombs are taking the lives of Iraqiswill remain in the status quo even though an
by the dozens daily. Life is far from normal asagreement was reached on electing a new
refugees are still flocking neighboring statespresident. Syria is in no hurry any longer to open
seeking shelter and safety.its arms to US even though the pressure of a
The US is unable to withdraw it army at least inUnited Nations Court to try those suspected in
large numbers. Al-Qa'eda and other anti-occupationthe killing of the late prime minister of Lebanon
forces remain at large and their threat couldRafik Al-Harriri is nearing where Syrian hands
remain high for the foreseeable future. Themight be involved.
country is divided across sectarian line with theIran will not surrender its rising influence, however
Shi'a holding most of the central power and theTurkey might play a greater role. Israel hasn't
Kurds have achieve autonomy in the north. Sunnisovercome its 2006 war in Lebanon against
are paralyzed between those who supportHisballah. The army is facing declining moral and
resistance and Shi'a hegemony and those whoseems unable to get the US to strike Iran nuclear
fear more alienation and the gradual loss offacilities. The Israeli Palestinian track would remain
power.moving on slow tracks and the prospect of a
Iran has evolved the emerging beneficiary of thePalestinian State remains elusive. No final
US blunder in Iraq and the region. Althoughboundaries are drafted, No resolutions on either
neighboring countries of Afghanistan and Iraq areJerusalem or Palestinian refugees in diaspora are
occupied and controlled by the United States, theagreed on, and finally the American dominance in
Iranian regime has enjoyed relative dominance inregion is eroding steadily thanks to the US failed
the region and this is attributed mostly to its wiseforeign policy.
policies of engagement and alliances.