| The massacre of more than 200 persons in | | | | assessment, such a decision would have the |
| Baghdad on the American Thanksgiving Day | | | | potential to concede territory to Al Qaeda on |
| holiday highlighted anew the violence that is now | | | | which it could establish the base it had lost when |
| tearing Iraq apart. During the 2006 U.S. political | | | | the Taliban were driven from power in |
| campaign, progress in Iraq was overstated and | | | | Afghanistan. |
| setbacks were discounted at times. Behind the | | | | Violence along the lines of ethnic cleansing is also |
| scenes, the situation in Iraq was growing steadily | | | | manifesting itself. "The intimidation and killing of |
| worse. At present, the real situation in Iraq is | | | | ethnic and religious minorities is of particular |
| grim. | | | | concern," the United Nations observed in June |
| Semantics and political posturing aside, Iraq is | | | | 2006. According to that UN report, 2,400 Christian |
| embroiled in a civil war. Various sectarian groups | | | | families fled Mosul to areas in which there is a |
| are fighting one another over power and | | | | Christian majority. That development is occurring |
| authority. "The fight to define post-Saddam Iraq | | | | on a much larger scale. Increasingly, Iraqis are |
| has been primarily an intra-Arab struggle to | | | | moving to areas dominated by their own ethnic |
| determine how power and authority will be | | | | group or fleeing the country outright. Iraq's |
| distributed... The conflict...is increasingly a sectarian | | | | Immigration Minister, Abdul-Samad Sultan |
| struggle for power and the right to define Iraq's | | | | observed that approximately 890,000 Iraqis have |
| future identity," Lieutenant General Michael Maples, | | | | moved to Jordan, Iran, and Syria since the fall of |
| Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency told | | | | Saddam Hussein. Another 300,000 have fled to |
| the Senate Armed Services Committee on | | | | other areas within Iraq, largely to areas in which |
| November 15, 2006. In speaking before a business | | | | their ethnic group predominates. |
| forum in the United Arab Emirates, former | | | | The situation has grown so bad that some Iraqis |
| Secretary of State Colin Powell said that he would | | | | are even yearning for the "old days" under |
| describe the current situation in Iraq as a civil war. | | | | Saddam Hussein's dictatorship. "There is no |
| "I have been using it [the term "civil war"] | | | | question that democracy is important, but more |
| because I like to face the reality," Powell | | | | important still is to pluck Iraq out of this runaway |
| explained. | | | | chaos, which is the direct result of unrestrained |
| For historic perspective, both recent wars in the | | | | democracy," Dr. Abd al-Khaliq Husayn explained in |
| Balkans, which were sparked by secession efforts | | | | Sotaliraq. "What is more, I do believe that security |
| rather than a quest for control over the | | | | with tyranny is better than insecurity with |
| fragmenting Yugoslavia, were termed civil wars. | | | | unlimited democracy. The unspeakable suffering of |
| Iraq certainly fits that definition. Moreover, just as | | | | Iraqis as a result of continuous deterioration in |
| "set piece" ground battles no longer fully define | | | | security and public services has grown so acute |
| conventional warfare among states, tactics and | | | | that they have come to regard any talk of |
| technologies have also evolved in civil wars. | | | | democracy as absolutely otiose, many of them |
| Across Africa and parts of Asia, guerrilla tactics | | | | even wishing for a return to Saddam's dictatorial |
| have taken precedence over large-scale ground | | | | reign." |
| battles in civil wars. | | | | Neither Iraq's government nor its security forces |
| However, in Iraq, the situation is even more | | | | are currently capable of meeting the challenges |
| complex. The Shia are seeking domination. Some | | | | presented by the ongoing civil war. Presently, two |
| Sunnis are seeking a restoration of Sunni power. | | | | Shia militias comprise a significant share of seats |
| Other Shia and Sunni groups are seeking to break | | | | with Iraq's Shia-dominated government. The Mahdi |
| away from Iraq. Al Qaeda is seeking to | | | | Army and Badr Militia, both of which have been |
| re-establish a base from which it can export its | | | | active in the sectarian violence, currently hold |
| jihad. One senior member of Iraq's government | | | | more than 20% of the seats in Iraq's parliament. |
| described the violence as "worse than a civil war." | | | | Aside from the Sunnis who are |
| He explained, "In a civil war, you at least know | | | | politically-disenfranchised in such an arrangement, |
| which factions are fighting each other. We don't | | | | Iraqis now have little confidence in the Iraqi |
| even know that anymore. It's so bloody | | | | government. In a November 14 op-ed piece in |
| confused." | | | | Al-Sabah al-Jadid, a Baghdad political daily |
| Brutality, ethnic cleansing, indiscriminate attacks, | | | | newspaper, columnist Hasaballah Yahya |
| and the targeting of religious institutions | | | | complained, "Even as death carries on with its |
| characterize the furious storm of violence now | | | | relentless daily harvest of Iraqi lives, our elected |
| raging in Iraq. "What is happening round the clock, | | | | legislators, who represent none but themselves, |
| in detail, is kidnapping of all that is living in a nation | | | | continue to wallow in peace and wealth, totally |
| that washes in its blood and counts its days and | | | | unconcerned that their nation is drifting fast into |
| nights with the number of those missing, killed and | | | | the realm of the unknown or that their |
| tortured from among its sons," Khayri Mansur, an | | | | motherland is being burnt to cinders." Hasan Hatim |
| Iraqi commentator wrote Al-Bayan, a Baghdad | | | | al-Madhkur, a columnist for Sotaliraq described the |
| daily newspaper. In Al-Zaman, the Baghdad edition | | | | present government as "promoting their own |
| of a London-based newspaper, columnist Fatih | | | | 'divide-and-rule'" agenda at the expense of Iraq's |
| Abd al-Salam observed that police patrols "which | | | | welfare and charged that its leaders are "engaged |
| are supposed to exude a sense of security, | | | | in a feverish race to stoke up sectarian tension." |
| cannot move safely in many Iraqi towns and | | | | Iraq's security forces remain largely impotent and |
| cities." He also explained in an earlier column, "The | | | | heavily tainted by militia elements. Lieutenant |
| failure to stop sectarian displacement in Baghdad | | | | General Maples told the Senate Armed Services |
| is a clear indication that that situation is out of | | | | Committee, "The Ministry of Interior and the |
| control and that the centers of political power are | | | | police are heavily infiltrated by members of the |
| isolated; except for ambiguous and general | | | | Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraaq or |
| statements that make no difference." | | | | SCIRI's Badr Corps and Moqtada al-Sadr's Jayish |
| In the ongoing maelstrom of violence, Iraqis have | | | | al-Mahdi. The Jaysh al-Mahdi often operates under |
| increasingly lost confidence in the ability of the | | | | the protection or approval of Iraqi police to detain, |
| United States to stabilize the situation. Columnist | | | | torture, and kill suspected Sunni insurgents and |
| Khamis al-Rubay'i, writing in Baghdad's Al-Dustur | | | | innocent Sunni civilians." Of Iraq's current |
| daily newspaper stated that U.S. troops have | | | | 134,000-man army, just 10 battalions or fewer |
| proved to be "incapable of establishing security | | | | than 10,000 men are deemed effective. In |
| and curbing terror." In Sotaliraq, an electronic | | | | contrast, Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army now has |
| newspaper published in Baghdad, Muhammad Abd | | | | 40,000 to 60,000 fighters. Worse, if provincial |
| al-Jabbar al-Shabbout, declared, "The U.S. is no | | | | elections were held, a U.S. intelligence officer |
| longer capable of solving the Iraqi problem on its | | | | predicted that Sadr's group would win most of |
| own." Alwan Hilayil, another columnist for the | | | | the seats from southern Iraq and in Baghdad. |
| same publication, asserted, "America's gift to the | | | | All said, the current on-the-ground situation in Iraq |
| people of Iraq has boiled down to this huge | | | | has grown very bad. The violence has advanced |
| parade of turbaned, bearded clerics with silver | | | | to the extent that one commentator, Mahdi |
| rings on their fingers, who have done irreparable | | | | Qassim proclaimed in Sotaliraq that "Saddam |
| damage to the essentially tolerant doctrine of | | | | managed to ruin half of Iraq in thirty years" but |
| Islam and stooped to the basest depths of | | | | the present arrangement has "succeeded in ruining |
| corruption to hoard enough money to last their | | | | the other half in just three." |
| next kin for generations to come." | | | | If a better outcome is still to be realized in Iraq, |
| Some U.S. commanders also believe the situation | | | | the United States, its allies, and moderate Arab |
| threatens to become unmanageable. A classified | | | | states will need to proceed from the vantage |
| Marine Corps intelligence report written by Col. | | | | point of the harsh reality that currently defines |
| Peter Devlin warned that unless an additional | | | | Iraq. The task ahead will be difficult. It will entail |
| 15,000 to 20,000 troops and billions of dollars in | | | | developing a legitimate Iraqi government, drafting |
| assistance were added to the ongoing efforts in | | | | a constitution that safeguards the rights of all |
| the Anbar Province, "there is nothing" that the U.S. | | | | Iraqis, establishing security, disarming the militias, |
| "can do to influence" the insurgency in that region. | | | | developing political and legal institutions, allowing |
| ABC News reported on November 28 that the | | | | Iraqis to share ownership of the nation's oil |
| Pentagon is now considering a plan to pull U.S. | | | | wealth, and reconstructing Iraq's economic |
| forces out of the Anbar Province. "If we are not | | | | infrastructure. Otherwise, Sunni |
| going to do a better job doing what we are | | | | disenfranchisement will only grow, Al Qaeda could |
| doing..., what's the point of having them out | | | | attain a new base, the ongoing civil war could |
| there?" one senior military official asked. With Al | | | | intensify, and Iraq could ultimately fragment, with |
| Qaeda forming an "integral part of the social | | | | mixed-ethnicity areas becoming horrific killing |
| fabric" in that part of Iraq according to Devlin's | | | | zones as the country breaks up. |