Journal Entry

#ffffff;" />enthusiastic" about voting.
At no point in recent history have the AmericanLooking at all of this data, it would be easy to
people been this angry and dissatisfied with theirconclude the Republicans will indeed retake
government. Both political parties are unpopular,Congress. However, control of Congress is not
less than a third believe the country is heading indetermined by polls, it is determined by 472
the right direction and Congress has a record 11%individual elections (435 House and 37 Senate). In
approval rating. The polls all indicate that bigthe House, the Democrats have a 255-178
changes will be taking place after the Novembermajority. To retake the House, Republicans will
election. The question is how big? To truly changeneed to win back 40 seats. In the Senate, the
the Congress, the Democratic majority partyDemocrats have a 59-41 majority. The
must be removed from power. To accomplishRepublicans need to flip 10 seats (in the case of a
this, the Republican Party must take control of50-50 tie, Vice President Biden would be the
Congress or at least the House. But can they dotiebreaker).
it?RealClearPolitics (RCP) offers election projections
Unfortunately there is no historical precedent forbased on an average of polls it collects from
this political situation and therefore the expertsseveral polling companies. According to their
are not really sure what will happen. Everythingestimates the Republicans have a good chances
suggests that the party in power will be kickedof retaking the House but not the Senate.
out. However, the alternative party, theChamberLean DemocratLean RepublicanToss Up
Republicans, are equally unpopular. Never have theHouse20320131
American people been so upset both parties. TheSenate484210
situation begs the question, what will the peopleSenate (no toss ups)5248*
do when it is time to decide between two* = RCP projects Charlie Crist to win Florida, on
unpopular parties?this chart it assumes he caucuses with the
Will they express their discontent by voting forRepublicans
neither or a third party candidate? Will they voteThis method of projecting outcomes is not
for the "lesser of two evils" and support thescientific but does give some idea of what could
Republicans? Or will it come down to the individualhappen. According to RCP the Republicans can
candidates?retake the House if they can win 17 of the 31
There are three common numbers experts useraces that are rated toss up. In the Senate, RCP
to judge the overall feeling of American voters.projects Republicans will come up 3 short of a
First is the Presidential approval rating. Generallymajority.
an unpopular President means his party will takeThe numbers discussed above strongly suggest
losses in the midterm election. President Obamathe Republicans will either retake the House or get
has an approval in the mid-40s, which suggest hisvery close. It will very likely come down to a
party may take "serious" losses.couple key races that will decide who controls the
The second number is the generic CongressionalHouse of Representatives in 2011-2012.
ballot. Voters are asked to select a candidateThe Republican Party is unpopular and performed
based solely on party affiliation. According topoorly their last term in power (2005-2007). Since
Rasmussen, Republicans have a 45-36 edge on athen, the Democratic Party has performed even
generic ballot, which would suggest Republicansworse. It is hardly encouraging to Americans that
could easily retake the House. Gallup has alsowe have an opportunity to choose the "lesser of
shown a dramatic upswing in voters that intend totoo evils". However, when it comes to the Five
vote Republican in November. In fact, GallupCore Principles, it is far more likely the Republicans
recorded Republican support at 49%, which haswill implement the right policies. The Democratic
not happened since 1994 just before theParty agenda is in almost polar opposition to the
Republicans won 54 seats and retook the House.Five Core Principles. The Republicans meanwhile
The third number is a poll which asks if peoplehave elements within the party that are strong
believe the country is headed in the right direction.supporters. It is important that Americans
Sadly, only 27% believe it is heading in the rightencourage and empower these elements within
direction, according to Rasmussen. Other pollingthe Republican Party.
companies have had similar results.When it comes to conservatives, tea partiers, and
What about the issues? Who do voters trustlibertarians it is important to them that the "right"
more? Despite their lack of popularity among theRepublicans get elected. There are still portions of
American people, the Republican Party is trustedthe Party that seem willing to implement big
more on eight of ten major issues. According togovernment solutions. These elements must be
Rasmussen, Republicans are trusted more on keymarginalized or eliminated. The best way is to
issues such as the economy, national security andsupport principled candidates in the primaries to
immigration.ensure the right candidates get on the ballot in
These numbers suggest Americans are ready toNovember. If the wrong candidate wins the
put Republicans back in power, but will they showprimary, voters can still make a difference. It is
up to vote for them in November. Midterms areessential that the Democratic Party is removed
often more about turnout than voter preferences.from power. Voters must accept the fact that a
Turnout is sometimes predicted by judging theweak Republican is better than a Democrat. The
level of enthusiasm among voters. In terms ofweak Republican can always be challenged and
enthusiasm, it does not look good for Democrats.defeated in the next primary election. Until then
According to Gallup 51% of Republicans are "verywe must not lose sight of our objective. The
enthusiastic" about voting in November. Inobjective in 2010 is to stop the Obama-Pelosi-Reid
comparison, only 28% of Democrats are "veryagenda.