Five Futures For Pakistan

is essay, I outline Five futures for Pakistan: (1) theChina – or Chindia. Certainly Pakistan will
Pendulum continues forever, (2) Collapse, (3)favor the China part of the amazing rise, but in
Joining Chindia, (4) the Great Game, and (5) aany case, in this future, economic growth is far
South Asian Confederation. The most familiar andmore important than ideological struggles. To
likely are based on the pendulum of rule by themove in this direction, the Singapore or Malaysian
military and rule by landlord/politicians. However,model may be adopted. This model is
what is needed is to move from the more likelycharacterized by a clear vision of the future,
and less desirable futures to a process oftransparency; break up of the feudal system,
anticipatory democracy where the citizens oflimited democracy (One party rule) and creatively
Pakistan consider, create and commit to buildingfinding a niche role in the global economy, and
their preferred future.then using that to springboard to becoming a
DEEP STRUCTURES AND ARCHETYPESglobal player. However, the India example shows
While the assassination of Benazir Bhutto certainlythat economic rise is possible outside the East
plunged Pakistan into one of its works crisis inAsian model. In any case, this future is hopeful
decades, the recent successful electionsi appearbut requires investment in infrastructure and a
to have brought hope back again. The extremistfavoring of globalized capitalism. Instead of
parties did poorly, and even with a low turn outlamenting the colonial past, in this Chindia future,
and election violence, it appears that the latestPakistan creates its own transnational
cycle of military rule is over. But how long will thiscorporations. Politics moves from focusing on old
cycle last?wrongs (Kashmir, for example) to desired futures.
I ask this question as Syed Abidi has made theInstead of Chindia, Chindistan is created.
observation that Pakistan's political system can4. The fourth scenario is the Great Game.vi
best be understood as a pendulum betweenPakistan remains a pawn, moved around for the
civilian rule and military rule. There have been sixstrategic and ideological purposes of the great
such swings, with the seventh toward civilian rulepowers. Whether in proxy wars against the
beginning in 2008.Russians or against 9/11 jihadis or whoever may
These swings occur because of the deepbe next, Pakistan’s capacity to influence
archetypes in Pakistan's politics. There are fourits future is low or non-existent. At best, it can
archetypes in Pakistan politics – the generalonly rent out its military, or territory, for
and military rule, the people and peoples' powerothers’ battles. In this future (as in the
that overthrows the ruler, the politician-feudal lord,current present), the rental receipts do not lead
and the bureaucrat who ensures smoothto even development –they merely enrich
transitions between all these types. Each one ofthose getting the rent, generally the military. The
these archetypes has two sides – thenational game becomes not how to transform the
general can be protective and moral (thegreat game but how to get a piece of the action,
enlightened despot) or can be amoral, staying toolegitimately or illegitimately. Those not part of the
long, clinging to power, assaulting human rights andmoney game sing songs of grand conspiracies.
using religion or strategy to stay in power. TheThese songs take away agency. While Pakistan
feudal lord can equally be protective or can stayhas a dependency relationship with the rest of the
too long, and use his or her power for personalworld, citizens have a dependency – child
gain. The citizen can be chaotic or can bring socialadult – relationship with the government,
capital to the nation. The bureaucracy can beexpecting it to solve each and every problem,
transparent and use their power to create awithout taking responsibility for their own actions
productive society (green tape) or it can slow theand blaming the government when it fails. At the
wheels of the nation, using time, money andcollective level, Pakistan remains rudderless,
symbolic power to hold the nation back (redevoking the words of the founder, but unable to
tape).follow through with action.
Given these patterns, what can we say about5. A wiser South-Asian confederation. The
Pakistan's futures. Five are currently possible.challenges Pakistan faces are similar to what other
ALTERNATIVE FUTUREScountries in the region face – religious
1.The pendulum continues forever. This wouldextremism, climate change, poverty, corruption,
mean that after this particular civilian cycle, theredeep inequity, used futures and less than helpful
will be another military coup in 7-10 years.archetypes – the only way forward is
Politicians will have some luck in ridding Pakistan oftowards an EU model of slow but inevitable
extremist fundamentalists, but old scoresintegration. While this may seem too positive and
between the PPP and the Pakistan Muslim Leaguefar away, it is not impossible. Each country needs
or between the PPP and the military will still needthe help of others to solve their problems. None
to be settled. Issues of justice and revenge willcan go it alone, and each can learn from the
continue and just as Pakistan's economy is aboutOther. This requires learning, peace and mediation
to take off, another crisis will set in. Citizens willskills in all schools; moving toward the sustainability
rally but then when they see no real change willdevelopment agenda; developing agreements in
become despondent. “Nothing is possiblesecurity, water, and energy to begin with; and a
here,” or a similar catch-phrase will be thefocus on the desired future and not on past
inner story. Globalization will not go away but theinjustices. Gender equity and systemic and deep
politics would swing between growth and equity.cultural levels is foundational for this future. This
2. Collapse – this is the most fearedfuture also requires an archetype that is neither
scenario for all, particularly in the West. Civil war inthe male general nor feudal lord nor the rebellious
Pakistan (the provinces going their own way), theteenager, but the wise person, perhaps the Globo
inability to stop jihadism, Al Qa'ida or their friendssapiens. Fortunately, the south Asian tradition is
finding some nukes, not to mention the globalsteeped with wisdom. Can this imagination be
challenges of climate change, all lead to a slowdrawn on to create a different future? Already in
decline destined for collapse. And if the challengePakistan, there are hundreds of groups and
from the Pakistani and Afghani Taliban is resolved,thousands of individuals working on this vision.
the frontline will switch to half-century old war in.What is needed is systemic support for this
Capital flies away, economic development slowsfuture, and a move away from focusing on past
down and Pakistan becomes a nation ofinjustices.
competing tribes. Women in this future areANTICIPATORY DEMOCRACY
particularly vulnerable as the battle betweenIf an alternative future for Pakistan is not
religious and secularists throughout the Islamiccreated, the pendulum will continue with collapse
(Arab influenced world) is fought over thealways being in the background. But this futures
“body” of the female. Is she acreation process cannot be done from above via
person unto herself or does the strong malea planning commission; rather, it must be part of
(feudal lord, ruler, mullah) need to protect anda broader process of anticipatory democracy
control. In the collapse, chaos would reign. Over– citizens, leaders and researchers mapping
time, and perhaps even quite quickly, a strongout alternative scenarios, then analyzing the
military leader is likely to rise (the Napoleonbenefits and costs of each future, visioning the
scenario), but can the great leader unite all thedesired, mediating conflicts between the desired,
tribes (the challenge facing Afghanistan today)?and then creating action learning processes to
3. Joining Chindia. With India likely to move into therealize the desired. Anticipatory democracy thus
ranks of the G-8 by 2020, gaining a permanentcan deepen electoral democracy, bringing focus
UN Security Council Position, Pakistan's only hopenot just to futures Pakistanis do not wish for but
is to link in every possible way with India andmore so to those that are desirable.