| Over the past few decades, Nigeria has emerged | | | | When South Africa takes the central role in |
| as one of the key political leaders in Africa. | | | | Africa, there will be broad impacts across the |
| Despite a long history of under-performance, | | | | Economic Community of West African States |
| driven primarily by leadership and visioning | | | | (ECOWAS) region. A post-petroleum era will |
| problems, it remains a key global strategic energy | | | | produce massive complications and fundamental |
| partner. It has crude oil and thus the capacity to | | | | dislocations in Nigeria's capacity to influence the |
| influence the dynamics of global commerce and | | | | region as South Africa becomes more prosperous |
| industry. | | | | owing to a highly diversifying economy. |
| But when our oil reserve gets exhausted, we will | | | | The Mandela nation is buying into more African |
| witness dramatic national transformations with | | | | markets, and its abilities to influence governments |
| enormous consequences. | | | | will become more pervasive and that will dwarf |
| Oil has been the driving force of Nigeria's | | | | Nigeria's influence. |
| economic wellbeing. Oil dominates our foreign | | | | Lack of oil to drive the economy will create |
| earnings. The progress we made in agriculture | | | | tendencies for more educated Nigerians to move |
| before the dawn of petroleum has been left | | | | abroad with potential strangulation on the |
| behind. | | | | economy. The implication is that the central point |
| The challenge for Nigeria is not necessarily what | | | | of government will be transformed and Nigeria |
| happens now, but what happens when the oil | | | | could emerge as a true federal system from its |
| wells dry up. In others words, what would be the | | | | present quasi-federal structure. |
| position of Nigeria, politically and economically, | | | | While the Nigerian union will be continuously |
| when the country can no longer generate foreign | | | | morphed to remain strong, the states will be |
| exchange from the sale of oil. | | | | expected to go back to fundamentals to develop |
| Our nation remains governed in a political system | | | | ways to function because central funding will |
| of extreme stagnation and avalanche partisanship. | | | | diminish. Without crude, assessing external |
| A system that breeds venoms with capacity to | | | | (international) loan will be difficult and many |
| destroy the heartbeat that keeps the nation | | | | Nigerian states will be challenged to be accountable |
| moving forward. It has created a syndrome that | | | | and innovative with their resources. They will |
| continues to prevent the nation from utilizing the | | | | establish structures and institutions to create |
| gains of oil sales to advance the citizens, the | | | | wealth and inter-states competitions will emerge. |
| infrastructure and give Nigeria a needed clout in | | | | This will be followed by effective tax and revenue |
| the global arena. | | | | collection techniques. |
| The nation has failed in many areas because our | | | | From federal parliament to state assemblies, the |
| leaders are entangled in managing government | | | | political system will be revamped. The present |
| processes and political pandering instead of being | | | | system which is extremely expensive and |
| servant leaders, by serving the interests of the | | | | supported by the largest of the crude oil will be |
| masses. Under this scenario, a look into the | | | | replaced. Some states will become creative in |
| country's future without oil will be challenging. At | | | | representative system in order to save cost. I |
| least, the nation will come to reality after many | | | | see a scenario where some states will sponsor |
| years of poor judgments and mismanagements | | | | representatives on part-time with the number of |
| which have caused deep pains on the citizens. | | | | positions reduced by half. Yes, new politics will |
| The first challenge will be cleaning the empty oil | | | | evolve and the democratic system will be |
| wells. It is unfortunate that the oil companies, who | | | | seriously tested. |
| despite knowing the public health and the | | | | One cannot imagine what will happen to education |
| environmental impacts of gas flaring, continue to | | | | in Nigeria if it cannot be funded properly with the |
| flare gas recklessly in Nigeria. We hope they will | | | | enormous oil revenue. In the post-petroleum era, |
| have the morality to clean those wells and | | | | the present model of higher education in Nigeria |
| restore them to pre-drilling ecological landscapes | | | | will collapse and government will request schools |
| before they depart. | | | | to fund themselves with minimal central supports. |
| Within Africa, Nigeria's influence will be tested. | | | | Schools will have to become very competitive |
| Since our nation has not developed any creative | | | | and innovative to attract grants and revenues to |
| technology that will sustain the economy, some | | | | survive and grow. Unfortunately, it must still |
| African nations may dominate us. South Africa | | | | overcome the present lost years of decay |
| could become like a hegemonic empire in Africa | | | | perpetuated by poor funding and outdated model. |
| with extreme power. That nation continues to | | | | What can be done? The nation still has time to |
| invest massively in education, giving Africa its best | | | | prepare for the post-petroleum era. It has to |
| universities, and attracting the best African brains. | | | | invest in education. This is important as education |
| From banking to technology, South Africa will be | | | | remains one of the best ways to sustain any |
| unrivalled and could rule Africa. As the economies | | | | economy. It is an organic engine for national |
| and political power of other African nations such | | | | political and economic succession, as well as a |
| as Ghana, Libya and Egypt grow; the capacity of | | | | catalyst for national prosperity. |
| Nigeria to define and influence in the African Union | | | | The country must also take the Millennium |
| will shrink despite enormous opportunities for new | | | | Developmental Goals (MDGs) seriously, while |
| Africa leadership to position the continent | | | | shifting its focus away from oil gradually to |
| competitively. | | | | knowledge driven industries. |